Singapore’s birth rate just hit a historic low. Are incentives enough to reverse it?

In a country known for its careful planning and long view of the future, the news delivered in Parliament during Budget 2026 gave many pause.

Singapore’s resident total fertility rate has fallen to 0.87, the lowest on record. Resident births dropped to 27,529 in 2025, the smallest number in the nation’s history.

Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong described the development as an “existential challenge”, warning that low birth rates and an ageing population will “profoundly reshape our nation, our society and our economy.”

The government’s response

In response to this news, Indranee Rajah, Minister in the Prime Minister’s Office, called for what she described as a “Marriage and Parenthood Reset.”

Speaking during the Committee of Supply debate, she suggested that Singapore must look beyond financial incentives alone and consider the broader structures that shape family life.

Over the years, the government has introduced a wide range of policies designed to support parents.

One of the most familiar is the Baby Bonus Scheme, which provides cash gifts to families when a child is born. The programme also includes the Child Development Account, where the government matches savings that parents set aside for their children’s future needs.

Families are able to use these funds for childcare, preschool fees and healthcare expenses.

Newborns also receive a MediSave Grant, with government contributions placed into a child’s MediSave account to help cover medical care, vaccinations and insurance.

Support has also been extended in the workplace.

Fathers are now entitled to four weeks of government-paid paternity leave, while a new Shared Parental Leave scheme will eventually allow parents to share up to 10 weeks of leave between them.

The aim is to give families greater flexibility and allow both parents to take part more fully in caregiving during a child’s early months.

For larger families, additional assistance is available through the Large Families Scheme, which provides extra financial support for families with three or more children.

Budget 2026 introduced another measure: $500 in Child LifeSG credits for every Singaporean child aged 12 and below, helping families manage everyday household expenses.

Singapore also provides subsidies for fertility treatments, including assisted reproductive technologies such as IVF in public hospitals. Couples may use MediSave savings to help pay for these procedures.

Childcare support remains another key part of the system. The government provides means-tested subsidies for infant care, childcare and preschool, helping working parents manage the costs of early childhood education.

Housing policies have also been shaped with families in mind.

During the Ministry of National Development debate, Senior Minister of State Sun Xueling announced that the Third Child Priority Scheme quota will be doubled from 5 per cent to 10 per cent, giving families with three or more children greater priority when applying for certain public housing flats.

Taken together, these measures represent a substantial national investment.

According to Minister Indranee, Singapore’s marriage and parenthood initiatives are projected to cost the government nearly S$7 billion in FY2026, up from more than S$4 billion in 2020.

MPs propose new ways forward

Members of Parliament also used the Budget debate to share ideas about how Singapore might better support families.

MP Valerie Lee proposed introducing subsidised fertility health screenings for both men and women at key life stages. Such screenings, she suggested, could help couples better understand their reproductive health and plan their families with greater confidence.

She also raised the possibility of miscarriage recovery leave for employees experiencing pregnancy loss.

MP David Hoe spoke about the everyday realities of parenting. He suggested that policymakers should focus not only on expanding incentives, but also on making daily life more manageable for families – from housing space to childcare support and family-friendly infrastructure.

MP Nadia Ahmad Samdin highlighted what she described as the “invisible infrastructure of fertility.”

Her suggestions included strengthening flexible work arrangements, supporting parents returning to the workforce and adjusting childcare leave so that it better reflects the needs of families with more children.

Meanwhile, MP Foo Cexiang suggested that Singapore may need to reconsider some long-standing assumptions in family policy. If the country is serious about supporting children, he said, policymakers may need to “slay several sacred cows.”

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Are incentives enough?

Yet even as new ideas are proposed, Singapore’s struggle with falling birth rates is hardly new.

The Baby Bonus scheme was enhanced in 2023. Paternity leave was expanded in 2024. Shared parental leave was introduced in 2025. The Large Families Scheme was created to encourage families to have a third child.

Despite these efforts, the fertility rate has continued to fall – from 1.24 in 2015 to 0.97 in 2024, before reaching 0.87 in 2025, according to the Singapore Department of Statistics.

In other words, Singapore has not been short on policies. But policies alone have most definitely not reversed the trend.

Research suggests that many Singaporeans still hope for family life. The Marriage and Parenthood Survey 2021, conducted by the National Population and Talent Division, found that 92 per cent of married respondents ideally wanted two or more children.

Yet only about half had that many.

The reasons respondents gave were revealing: the cost of raising children, the stress of parenting, and the challenge of balancing work and family responsibilities.

Even personal relationships may feel the strain of modern life.

A Singapore-based study published in the journal Archives of Sexual Behavior found that higher stress and fatigue were associated with lower odds of sexual activity among married women aged 25 to 34.

The finding does not explain Singapore’s fertility decline on its own. But it offers a glimpse into how exhaustion can shape family life.

And that raises a question worth thinking about: in a society where so many already feel stretched thin, are Singaporeans even in a position to take on the demands of raising children?