The impact of declining birth rates on your future

The average person walking around Singapore is not likely to “feel” the population decline. Most of us on the MRT at rush hour probably feel the opposite. So if our fertility rates are in decline, is it really such a bad thing?

The short answer is yes. A shrinking population, which according to Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong could happen as early as 2040, means a smaller workforce, as well as greater difficulties in sustaining defence and national growth. This puts more strain on the existing population, and results in the country turning to external sources to increase its citizenship.

To truly understand the impact, it is important to look at the issue from a more narrow point of view.

“We often frame this in economic terms, but the impact is very real at the family level,” says associate professor Razwana Begum of the Singapore University of Social Sciences’ School of Humanities and Behavioural Sciences.

“Right now, we are seeing more pressure on smaller families. With fewer children, each child carries more responsibility, especially in caring for ageing parents. In many cases, that responsibility still falls more heavily on women.”

According to the Civil Service College of Singapore, the current fertility rate could lead to one in four Singaporeans being over the age of 65 by 2030.

“It’s not just about an ageing population, but whether Singapore’s social fabric can remain strong,” Prof Razwana points out. She cites less informal support, more isolation, and more stress across generations as consequences of smaller families.

The great baby push

So what is the solution beyond baby bonuses and parental leave? Prof Razwana believes it’s about focusing on the barriers to forming and raising families.

“As a mother, I can say that raising children is deeply meaningful, but also demanding in ways that are not always visible in policy conversations,” she says. “And as a social worker, I’ve seen how people’s decisions are shaped by their circumstances. These are not casual choices. So if we create the right conditions – where people feel supported and secure – I believe many will choose to have children. But it has to come from support, not pressure.”

A look at the international community shows that fertility tends to be more sustainable in societies where women do not have to choose between career and family. However, it’s also interesting to note that across the board, most developed countries have been seeing a downward trend in fertility rates – Australia, Canada, France and Norway all saw record-low numbers in recent years.

“Supporting birth rates is not separate from women’s empowerment – it is actually deeply connected to it. If women feel supported, respected, and not penalised for caregiving, then family life becomes a more realistic and positive choice,” states Prof Razwana.